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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics (English Edition) ›› 1999, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 84-89.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

THE FRACTAL RESEARCH AND PREDICATING ON THE TIME SERIES OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER

顾圣士, 王志谦, 程极泰   

  1. Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, P. R. China
  • 收稿日期:1997-07-10 出版日期:1999-01-18 发布日期:1999-01-18

THE FRACTAL RESEARCH AND PREDICATING ON THE TIME SERIES OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER

Gu Shenshi, Wang Zhiqian, Cheng Jitai   

  1. Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, P. R. China
  • Received:1997-07-10 Online:1999-01-18 Published:1999-01-18

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摘要： In this paper, with the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems, It is analyzed that the dynamic behavior and the predictabilityfor the monthly mean variationsof the sunspot relative number recorded from January 1891 to December 1996. Inthe progress, the fractal dimension (D=3. 3±0.2) for the variation process wascomputed. This helped us to determine the embedded dimension [2×D+1]=7.By computing the Lyapunov index (λ1=0.863), it was indicated that the variationprocess is a chaotic system. The Kolmogorov entropy (K=0.0260) was also computed, which provides, theoretically, the predicable time scale. And at the end, according to the result of the analysis above, an experimental predication is made,whose data was a part cut from the sample data.

关键词: number of sunspots, fractal dimension, Kolmogorov entropy, Lyapunov number, predicate

Abstract: In this paper, with the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems, It is analyzed that the dynamic behavior and the predictabilityfor the monthly mean variationsof the sunspot relative number recorded from January 1891 to December 1996. Inthe progress, the fractal dimension (D=3. 3±0.2) for the variation process wascomputed. This helped us to determine the embedded dimension [2×D+1]=7.By computing the Lyapunov index (λ1=0.863), it was indicated that the variationprocess is a chaotic system. The Kolmogorov entropy (K=0.0260) was also computed, which provides, theoretically, the predicable time scale. And at the end, according to the result of the analysis above, an experimental predication is made,whose data was a part cut from the sample data.

Key words: number of sunspots, fractal dimension, Kolmogorov entropy, Lyapunov number, predicate

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