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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics (English Edition) ›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 1305-1316.doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10483-009-1010-1

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A heterogeneous boundedly rational expectation model for housing market

梁以德1 徐佳娜2 崔詠芯1   

  1. 1. Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, P. R. China;
    2. Postdoctoral Centre, China Merchants Group Limited, 27/F, China Merchants Tower, Shun Tak Centre, 168-200 Connaught Rd. C., Hong Kong SAR, P. R. China
  • 收稿日期:2008-10-05 修回日期:2009-08-25 出版日期:2009-10-01 发布日期:2009-10-01

A heterogeneous boundedly rational expectation model for housing market

Andrew Y.T.LEUNG1, XU Jia-Na2, Wing Shum TSUI1   

  1. 1. Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, P. R. China;
    2. Postdoctoral Centre, China Merchants Group Limited, 27/F, China Merchants Tower, Shun Tak Centre, 168-200 Connaught Rd. C., Hong Kong SAR, P. R. China
  • Received:2008-10-05 Revised:2009-08-25 Online:2009-10-01 Published:2009-10-01

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摘要： This research aims to test the housing price dynamics when considering heterogeneous boundedly rational expectations such as naive expectation, adaptive expectation and biased belief. The housing market is investigated as an evolutionary system with heterogeneous and competing expectations. The results show that the dynamics of the expected housing price varies substantially when heterogeneous expectations are considered together with some other endogenous factors. Simulation results explain some stylized phenomena such as equilibrium or oscillation, convergence or divergence, and over-shooting or under-shooting. Furthermore, the results suggest that variation of the proportion of groups of agents is basically dependent on the selected strategies. It also indicates that control policies should be chosen carefully in consistence with a unique real estate market during a unique period since certain parameter portfolio may increase or suppress oscillation.

关键词: evolutionary system, housing price dynamics, heterogeneous expectations

Abstract: This research aims to test the housing price dynamics when considering heterogeneous boundedly rational expectations such as naive expectation, adaptive expectation and biased belief. The housing market is investigated as an evolutionary system with heterogeneous and competing expectations. The results show that the dynamics of the expected housing price varies substantially when heterogeneous expectations are considered together with some other endogenous factors. Simulation results explain some stylized phenomena such as equilibrium or oscillation, convergence or divergence, and over-shooting or under-shooting. Furthermore, the results suggest that variation of the proportion of groups of agents is basically dependent on the selected strategies. It also indicates that control policies should be chosen carefully in consistence with a unique real estate market during a unique period since certain parameter portfolio may increase or suppress oscillation.

Key words: evolutionary system, housing price dynamics, heterogeneous expectations

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